A financial report has brought back the discussion of 'Fragrant Fragrance Cannot Sell' to the public eye.

On October 24th, Xiang Piaopiao disclosed its third quarter report for 2026. The company achieved a revenue of 584 million yuan in the current quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 10.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was only 974600 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 88.09%, with a deduction of non loss of 2.2098 million yuan. For this company with thousands of employees, the profit pressure of less than one million yuan per quarter is evident.

In stark contrast to this is the new tea beverage track. The profit speed of brands such as Meixue Bingcheng and Guming is much higher than that of Xiangpiaopiao. The most intuitive manifestation is that in the first half of 2026, Xiangpiaopiao's daily net profit is about 60000 yuan, while Meixue Bingcheng's daily net profit in the first half of 2026 is about 12.81 million yuan.

Difficult to form the second curve

Recently, the gap of "less than 2 hours to earn enough fragrant and floating profits for the entire third quarter in Meixue Ice City" has been compared by the market. In fact, in the third quarter of the traditional off-season for brewing milk tea, Xiangpiaopiao's daily net profit further decreased to about 10800 yuan; According to the net profit level of approximately 534000 yuan per hour in the first half of the year, Meixue Ice City can achieve a net profit of approximately 1.068 million yuan in two hours, which is enough to cover Xiangpiaopiao's net profit attributable to the parent company of 974600 yuan in the third quarter.

Before the large-scale expansion of freshly brewed tea shops, brands such as Xiangpiaopiao and Youlemei relied on underground channels and seasonal hot drink demand to have a stable base for brewing milk tea. And Meixue Bingcheng and Tianlala are deeply rooted in the county and township markets with high cost-effective products, Yihetang focuses on the quality price ratio route to expand its sinking network, and brands such as Guming and Hushang Auntie continue to consolidate the mid-range sinking market.

New tea beverage brands are cheap, freshly made, can add ingredients, and can be carried away. At the same time, pre packaged brewing companies such as Xiangpiaopiao have been limited by product form solidification and "high sugar" labels. Therefore, the mass consumption scene that originally belonged to brewing milk tea is constantly being diverted.

In this context, Xiangpiaopiao has started to focus on its ready to drink business in recent years, launching products such as Meco Honey Valley Juice Tea and Lanfangyuan Hong Kong style Tea, in an attempt to create a second growth curve. However, the ready to drink sector has not grown as expected.

According to the data for the first three quarters of 2026, the sales revenue of Xiangpiaopiao ready to drink segment was 807 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.14%; The revenue of the brewing sector was 1.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.35%. The scale of the ready to drink business is limited, making it difficult to share the pressure on the main business. At present, the company is led by the second-generation successor Jiang Xiaoying, who is simultaneously promoting the development of new products for health preservation. The advertising slogan 'cups can circle the earth N times when connected' is the most profound memory of Xiangpiaopiao among the public. Brewing milk tea is still the core revenue and profit pillar of the company to this day.The ready to drink business is facing competition from bottled beverage shelves, with different channel logic and brewing distribution systems. Brand awareness transfer also requires time, and economies of scale have not yet formed.

According to Securities Daily, consumers in popular commercial areas' ready to drink stores are increasingly valuing health attributes when choosing drinks, and will actively inquire whether the products are sugar free and whether the ingredients are pure. Therefore, if traditional fast-moving consumer goods brands cannot achieve a healthy and scenario based transformation, their market share will continue to shrink.

The fourth quarter has always been the traditional peak sales season for Fragrant Brewing products, with room for periodic recovery in performance. However, seasonal dividends can only alleviate short-term performance fluctuations. Whether the ready to drink business can truly become a second growth curve is the current core test.

Previously, Xiang Piaopiao opened a direct operated store for Xiang Piaopiao Original Leaf Fresh Milk Tea in Hangzhou, hoping to activate the brand through the experience of on-site production. However, there are significant differences in personnel management, quality control, and supply chain logic between fast-moving consumer goods manufacturing and catering store operations, making it difficult to simply copy the store model. The more practical direction for brewing tea beverage enterprises is to reorganize product ideas, develop functional tea bags, health hot drinks, or deeply cooperate with new retail channels. There are already many mature players in the tea bag and health tea beverage market. Although Xiangpiaopiao has a foundation in sinking channels, it has not yet formed a deeply rooted brand recognition in this category, and the subsequent layout effect still needs to be tested by the market. If the transformation progress falls short of expectations, the enterprise may be trapped in a long-term situation of increasing income without increasing profits, and the main business will continue to be under pressure.

Industrial Changes

The brewing milk tea track has entered a contraction cycle as a whole. As the industry leader, Xiangpiaopiao's declining performance reflects the development difficulties of this category. By comparison, the current tea beverage market is still in an expansion cycle. Meixue Bingcheng, Guming, and Bawang Tea Lady are deeply cultivating the domestic market while expanding overseas, driving the development of upstream and downstream industries such as raw materials, packaging, cold chain logistics, and commercial real estate. The large-scale franchise orders of Meixue Bingcheng are driving the industrialization of agricultural product cultivation in reverse, and its self built lemon raw material base is a case study; Tens of thousands of stores continue to provide corresponding job opportunities. In the short term, freshly brewed tea beverages remain a highly dynamic segment in the consumer market.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, this trend can provide a new opportunity for raw material manufacturers, cold chain service providers, store digital systems, and automation equipment suppliers who have stable supply capabilities. Meixue Ice City has 31 warehouses nationwide, with a distribution network covering over 300 prefecture level cities, promoting in store delivery and outstanding logistics integration capabilities; The popularization of intelligent liquid dispensers and other equipment has also driven the development of the commercial beverage equipment industry.

Even so, there is still room for brewing products to survive. Xiangpiaopiao, as an instant brewed milk tea, still has irreplaceable convenience in some scenarios such as dormitories, long-distance travel, remote towns, and home stocking. When the store and delivery cannot meet the demand, the convenience of "one cup of hot water can brew" still exists. Simultaneously brewing products with long shelf life and lower storage and transportation costs, naturally suitable for hoarding consumption. But it cannot be denied that traditional brewing products also need to be adjusted according to market changes. Traditional fast-moving consumer goods brands like Xiangpiaopiao need to continuously improve their formulas, update their packaging, and expand their e-commerce and new retail channels during the transformation process. The market's perspective on it is also changing, no longer only measuring production and manufacturing capabilities, but also taking into account the performance of user management and brand iteration.

Looking back at the fragrant third quarter report, it is not difficult to find that the national dividend period of brewing milk tea has already passed. The key to whether Xiangpiaopiao can overcome its difficulties in the future lies in avoiding direct competition with freshly made tea drinks and focusing on niche markets that cannot be taken into account by food delivery and stores. But whether the enterprise can truly improve depends on the actual adjustment results of subsequent products and channels.

(The author is a researcher at the Jingguan Research Institute)