Economic Observer reporter Tian Guobao

During the National Day holiday in 2026, Guo An returned to his hometown of Dacheng County, Hebei Province, intending to buy a retirement home for his parents.

Dacheng is about 150 kilometers away from Beijing, and the county town is not large in scale. Good educational, medical, and commercial resources are concentrated in the central urban area. Guo An looked at several new real estate projects and found that the unit price of better located projects has exceeded 10000 yuan/square meter, and the listed unit price of some high-quality second-hand houses in the central urban area is also around 10000 yuan. After comparison, he chose a second-hand house with an age of about 10 years.

Guo An originally thought that after this round of real estate market consolidation, the housing prices in his hometown county would be much cheaper. After inspecting the house, he found that although the housing prices in the big city had fallen, the changes in the central urban area were not significant.

Li Xiang, who works in Zhungeer Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, is also preparing to change houses. Recently, his unit launched a batch of welfare housing with a unit price of about 7000 yuan/square meter, and he immediately registered. Li Xiang said that the price of ordinary commercial housing in the local area is generally around 9000 yuan/square meter, and a set of welfare housing is two to three hundred thousand yuan lower than similar commercial housing.

Zhungeer Banner has abundant coal resources and is far away from first and second tier cities. The housing demand mainly comes from local residents. In the past few years, local housing prices have also declined, but the fluctuations have been limited. Li Xiang introduced that when the housing prices in Zhungeer Banner were at their highest, they were only a little over ten thousand yuan.

There are many county towns with stable housing prices. According to the aggregated data, as of September 2026, among the more than 1200 county-level small towns included in the national statistics, there are more than 400 towns where the average price of second-hand houses has retreated less than 20% from the local historical high point, but there are also more than 80 small towns where the retreat exceeds 50%.

In this batch of samples, the decline in housing prices in small cities in the western and northeastern regions is relatively small, especially in some economically underdeveloped areas in the northwest and southwest; The withdrawal range of counties and districts under the jurisdiction of eastern regions, satellite cities in first and second tier cities, and some provincial capitals is relatively large.

The head of a regional real estate company told the Economic Observer that these small cities with stable housing prices are not without price fluctuations, but over a longer period of time, they perform more stably.

Small town housing prices

Guo An's parents' housing in Dacheng is a "rundown small" apartment. During the Chinese New Year, there are too many people in the family to live in, and some of them even have to stay in hotels. This house is far from the central urban area, making it inconvenient to go to hospitals or supermarkets. His parents are also unwilling to go to Beijing, so he wants to find a better place to live for them.

After inquiring with classmates and friends in his hometown, Guo An found that the housing prices in Dacheng were higher than those in surrounding areas such as Bazhou and Yongqing, and even comparable to those in Gu'an.

The local agent who recommended housing for Guo An said that the housing prices in Dacheng have been rapidly rising since 2017, increasing by nearly 40% in a year. In the second half of 2018, they exceeded 10000 yuan and reached their peak in the second half of 2019. At that time, the housing prices in the central urban area were generally between 11000 and 12000 yuan per square meter, with some new and second-hand houses having a unit price exceeding 13000 yuan per square meter.

Subsequently, there was a differentiation in housing prices in major cities. The housing prices in the central urban area have fluctuated slightly, but still remain above 10000 yuan, while the housing prices in the outskirts of the county have significantly declined. The residential area where Guo An's parents live once had a unit price of tens of thousands of yuan, but then the transaction was sluggish, and the price dropped all the way to the current four to five thousand yuan.

The above-mentioned intermediary said that since 2024, the local new housing market has been dominated by existing housing projects, and developers are also mainly local enterprises. Even if sales of some projects are slow, developers are unwilling to lower prices.

According to the public announcement of the Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Dacheng County, in October 2025, the average selling price of a current housing project announced was 11000 yuan/square meter, with the highest price of 15000 yuan/square meter and the lowest price of 7000 yuan/square meter. There have been no new housing projects announced since 2026.

Similar to Dacheng, the housing demand in Zhungeer Banner mainly comes from local residents' self occupation. There are not many foreign developers and fewer investors. In Li Xiang's impression, the local housing prices have not significantly decreased.

The data from Tonghuashun also shows this trend. From October 2019 to December 2020, the average price of second-hand houses in Zhungeer Banner was between 7000 yuan and 8000 yuan per square meter; From January 2021 to May 2023, the price ranges from 8000 yuan to 9000 yuan per square meter; Since then, it has been around 9000 yuan per square meter.

The housing prices in Ejin Horo Banner, adjacent to Zhungeer Banner, are also stable. According to data from Tonghuashun, since 2019, the prices of second-hand houses have mostly ranged from 7000 yuan to 7900 yuan per square meter.

Qian'an, a county-level city under the jurisdiction of Tangshan, relies heavily on industrial economy as its important support. According to data from Tonghuashun, in the second half of 2017, the average price of second-hand houses in Qian'an once exceeded 8000 yuan/square meter, but then began to decline and remained at around 6000 yuan/square meter for many years.

Hohhot's subordinate county, Helingeer, is the location of Mengniu Group and an important computing power base for the "East Calculation West Calculation" project. According to data from Tonghuashun, since 2019, the price of second-hand houses in the county has mostly remained between 4000 and 5000 yuan per square meter, except for a few months when it exceeded 5000 yuan per square meter.

Price Fluctuation Differentiation

Since 2015, the coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the construction of Beijing's urban sub center, and the construction of Beijing's new airport are expected to promote the heating up of the real estate market around Beijing. Yanjiao, Dachang, Xianghe, Gu'an, Yongqing and other places have attracted a large number of foreign home buyers, and the real estate market has entered a rapid upward period.

From the end of 2015 to the first half of 2017, before the tightening of the purchase restriction policy, housing prices in some districts and counties around Beijing increased by about three times. During the same period, the largest city located at the southernmost end of Langfang saw a relatively small increase in housing prices, rising from 6000 yuan/square meter to around 8000 yuan/square meter. The above-mentioned big city intermediary stated that due to location restrictions, out of town investors rarely enter the real estate market in big cities.

2017 was an important turning point for the Beijing market. In March of that year, Beijing tightened its purchase restrictions; In June, Langfang followed up and included the urban area of Langfang, the three northern counties, Gu'an, Yongqing, as well as Bazhou and Wen'an in the purchase restriction scope. Dacheng is the only district in Langfang that has not been included in the purchase restriction. Afterwards, housing prices around Beijing began to decline. Since the second half of 2023, the prices of second-hand houses in most areas around Beijing have fallen below 10000 yuan.

As of now, the prices of second-hand houses in Gu'an, Yongqing and other places have returned to the level before the rise in 2015. The price of second-hand houses in Dacheng exceeded 10000 yuan in the second half of 2018, and although it has undergone adjustments since 2023, the housing prices in the central urban area still remain around 10000 yuan.

Kunshan is an important satellite city around Shanghai. Like most cities across the country, housing prices in Kunshan accelerated their upward trend from the end of 2015, rising to 13000 yuan/square meter in 2016, while housing prices in the nearby Huaqiao area of Shanghai once approached 30000 yuan/square meter.

After the implementation of purchase restrictions in Kunshan in September 2016, the trading volume decreased, but the price did not significantly drop. From 2017 to 2021, housing prices in Kunshan have risen again after consolidation, with the highest monthly average transaction price reaching 18000 yuan/square meter. Since 2023, the real estate market in Kunshan has entered a period of adjustment.

A local real estate agent told the Economic Observer that the main reason for the significant drop in second-hand housing prices in Kunshan is in the Huaqiao area. There were many investors in the early stage, and after the adjustment of the real estate market, investors left, resulting in a pullback of over 40% in housing prices. The fluctuation of housing prices in the main urban area of Kunshan is relatively small, with a drawdown of about 20%.

Unlike the surrounding areas of Beijing and Shanghai, small cities such as Zhungeer Banner, Helingeer, Shishi, Qian'an, and Shouguang have mostly experienced price increases since the end of 2015 and adjustments since 2022. However, compared with cities where investors gather, these markets, which are mainly driven by local demand, have an overall decline in housing prices of less than 20%.

There are still some small cities across the country that have been less affected by this round of real estate cycle. Especially in some small towns in the northwest and southwest, the economy is underdeveloped, the population is small, and real estate transactions are not active. Some small towns even do not have real estate intermediaries.

The head of the regional real estate company mentioned above said that currently, the housing supply in most small towns in the western region is becoming saturated, and residents do not lack houses. What they lack is good houses, and the future market opportunities lie in product updates.

Small towns are diverse

In Zhungeer Banner, Li Xiang registered to participate in the welfare housing lottery mainly for the purpose of changing houses and reducing purchasing expenses, rather than focusing on the space for rising housing prices or price arbitrage. He said that the locals don't lack houses.

Zhungeer Banner does not have the geographical advantage of being adjacent to first tier cities, and residents' income mainly relies on local industries and employment. According to the 2026 government work report of Zhungeer Banner, the per capita disposable income of local urban residents in 2025 will be 66000 yuan, which is not as high as Kunshan and other triangle counties, but still exceeds many counties.

Helingeer has good computing power and a strong foundation in the dairy industry. The per capita disposable income of urban residents is less than 50000 yuan, and the local housing prices are relatively stable. However, the average price of second-hand houses is significantly lower than that of Zhungeer Banner.

The person in charge of the regional real estate enterprise mentioned above said that small towns with good industrial foundations have more employment opportunities and higher incomes for residents. In areas such as Qian'an and Wu'an in Hebei Province, the wages of workers in the coal and metallurgical industries are much higher than the local average level. These workers, along with employees from administrative institutions and businessmen, form a relatively stable group for purchasing houses.

In this round of real estate adjustment, the fluctuation range of housing prices in Kunshan is smaller than that in the three northern counties, which is to some extent related to its strong economic strength. By 2025, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Kunshan will reach 79000 yuan, ranking among the top in the country.

The industrial structure of Dacheng is different from Kunshan, Zhungeer Banner, and Qian'an. Dacheng is the largest production base for insulation and energy-saving materials in China, with rock wool and glass wool accounting for 40% of the national market, and rubber insulation materials accounting for about 60% of the national market. By 2025, the per capita disposable income of local urban residents will be around 50000 yuan.

Guo An said that when young people in some areas of Hebei get married, even if they live in rural areas, they still need to have a house in the county town, which to some extent supports the local housing demand. The proportion of rural population in Dacheng is about half, while the urban population is just over 200000.

The stable housing prices in some small western cities are related to their vast land and sparse population, as well as stable demand. Outsiders who want to buy a house cannot find sales offices for new houses or intermediaries for second-hand houses, and transactions mainly rely on referrals from acquaintances. Local residents also rarely consider buying a house as an investment option.

A real estate developer in a western county town told the Economic Observer that these small county towns have almost no shortage of houses, and there are different prices of housing available. The price of a new house ranges from 70000 to 200000 yuan, and there are also many top accounting houses. When the homeowner urgently needs money, they are also willing to sell for 30000 to 40000 yuan.

Most of these small cities with relatively stable housing prices have not experienced a concentrated influx of investment customers; The main urban area of Kunshan relies on its strong economic strength to buffer the impact of investment inflows and outflows. The head of the regional real estate company mentioned above said that investors often come in and out quickly, amplifying market demand in a short period of time and driving up housing prices rapidly. Once the supply increases or policies tighten, price increases are hindered, investors sell and leave, and housing prices decline accordingly. It is difficult for local self occupied demand to digest the newly added supply and concentrated selling of housing in the short term.

In his view, in addition to the supply and demand changes brought by investors, product differences are also an important factor affecting housing price fluctuations. After the launch of new products with better quality, the attractiveness of existing housing decreases, and "old but small" houses are prone to depreciation.

(At the request of the interviewee, Guo An and Li Xiang are given pseudonyms)