Economic Observer reporter Wang Yajie

A salt lake agreement signed at the end of August in Argentina is awaiting construction.

In late August, lithium industry leader Ganfeng Lithium (002460. SZ) disclosed that its subsidiary Ganfeng International had signed a series of deterministic key agreements with overseas partner LAR (Argentine Lithium) for the integration of PPGS (three Argentine salt lakes integrated by Ganfeng and LAR) lithium salt lake projects. Three salt lake projects are merged into the same platform, with Ganfeng International holding 67% of the shares. The plan is to construct them in three phases, with a total designed production capacity of 150000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year.

This paper agreement needs to cross the door of real production capacity, and the key to opening the door is still in the hands of approval and financing. At the semi annual performance briefing on August 31st, Ganfeng Lithium responded to investors that the progress of project construction depends on the landing of financing, and can be launched after the financing is completed.

Ganfeng is not the only lithium company that has expanded its overseas presence in the past month.

On August 24th, the board of directors of Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240. SZ) passed a proposal to invest in the construction of a 75000 ton annual lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe and Nigeria respectively. In addition to expansion, on August 16th, Hualian Holdings (000036. SZ) announced that its Arizaro Salt Lake acquisition project in Argentina has received a national security review notice from Canada.

What makes businesses re bet is price and rules. The price of lithium carbonate fell below 60000 yuan per ton in 2025 and will return to around 150000 yuan per ton in 2026. At the same time, Zimbabwe announced a ban on the export of lithium concentrate from January 1, 2027, requiring companies to build lithium sulfate processing plants within its borders.

Price has given momentum, and rules have set new thresholds.

A lithium company leader who is promoting overseas lithium projects said, "Now, when we choose overseas lithium projects, we will first see if they can be implemented, and then see if the resources are good

From signing to landing, lithium companies are changing their tracks when going global.

Overseas Expansion

In late August, domestic lithium companies successively settled overseas.

According to preliminary analysis by Economic Observer reporters, within one day on August 24th, two listed lithium companies successively disclosed the progress of overseas projects. Ganfeng International, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, signed a series of deterministic key agreements with overseas partner LAR on the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina; Shengxin Lithium Energy has disclosed plans to invest in lithium sulfate projects in Zimbabwe and Nigeria respectively.

The confidence in this round of decline comes from the rebound of lithium prices.

The price of lithium carbonate once fell below 60000 yuan per ton in 2025, returned to around 150000 yuan per ton in August 2026, and has fallen back to about 140000 yuan per ton since September. The price has rebounded, and the performance of lithium companies has improved accordingly. Tianqi Lithium (002466. SZ) predicts a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.85 billion yuan to 4.25 billion yuan in the first half of the year, Ganfeng Lithium's semi annual report shows a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.257 billion yuan, and Shengxin Lithium's net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.012 billion yuan during the same period.

In the joint announcement of the transaction with LAR, Wang Xiaoshen, President of Ganfeng Lithium, stated that the two parties have been cooperating in the Argentine lithium industry for nearly ten years, with a cumulative investment of over 2 billion US dollars. Their shared vision is to increase production capacity to over 200000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year (including the total vision of the projects already deployed by both parties in Argentina).

Shengxin Lithium Energy's choice is to directly build a smelting plant in the resource country. On August 24th, its board of directors approved a proposal to invest in the construction of lithium sulfate projects in Zimbabwe and Nigeria, with each project planning to produce 75000 tons of lithium sulfate annually, with a total investment of approximately 476 million US dollars. Announcement reminder: The project still needs to go through the procedures of domestic and foreign investment approval and filing, as well as local government approval.

Falling is just the beginning.

Lu Haiqin, an EPC contractor who has long been involved in the construction of Chinese overseas lithium mining projects, said, "A definitive integration or investment agreement signing only completes the commercial negotiation stage, and there is still a real gap between the actual commencement and the actual construction

After signing the contract

The first to light up the red light was Hualian Holdings. On August 16th, it was disclosed that it received a notification letter from the Canadian Foreign Investment Review and Economic Security Authority (FIRES) on August 14th, stating that the company's investment in the Argentine Arizaro Lithium Salt Lake project may affect Canada's national security and may initiate further review within 45 days from the date of the notification. This transaction originated from the acquisition of Argentum Lithium S. by Hualian Holdings for approximately $175 million in December 2025A company registered in Argentina and holding 100% of the shares in the Arizaro Salt Lake project will receive 80% equity in the Arizaro project upon completion of the transaction. As of September 27, 2026, the transaction has not been delivered and is still awaiting a decision from Canadian FIRES on whether to initiate further review (the 45 day window expires on September 28) and domestic ODI approval. The agreement deadline has been automatically extended to October 20, 2026.

A lawyer who has long been involved in cross-border mergers and acquisitions of lithium mines in South America and Africa told Economic Observer that Hualian Holdings received a "Notice Letter" issued by FIRES, which is different in nature from the formal veto decision issued by regulatory authorities: the "Notice Letter" does not mean a suspension order, and the transaction has not been suspended. Both the buyer and seller can still submit defense materials and negotiate remedial measures, but the transaction delivery (the stage where the buyer and seller complete the transfer of shares and payment of the price, and the subject matter officially changes ownership) adds significant uncertainty.Once the regulatory authorities formally reject or require the forced divestment of the purchased assets, the transaction must be terminated, and the buyer will also lose the pre paid margin, due diligence (referring to the verification of the financial, legal, and asset status of the target before the transaction is signed), and other upfront expenses.

The lawyer analyzed that the uniqueness of this transaction lies in the fact that all underlying assets are located in Argentina, but the seller is a Canadian registered listed entity, thus triggering a national security review under Canadian investment laws.

Approval and financing are another type of checkpoint.

Ganfeng Lithium announced at a performance briefing on August 31st that the PPGS project has completed the RIGI (Large Investment Incentive System) application and is expected to be approved by the end of 2026. However, the project construction progress still depends on the financing landing situation.

Lu Haiqin divided the threshold for signing into two categories: environmental impact assessment, RIGI and other special investment approvals, as well as domestic and foreign investment filing. These are routine time issues that may prolong the early stages, but as long as the materials are complete, there is a high probability that they can be pushed forward; The real hard constraints that may hinder the project are mainly disputes over the ownership of mining rights, inability to close the project's syndicated financing, and ongoing judicial resistance from local communities.

Export quotas are a new gateway that resource rich countries are pushing open. According to the investor relations activity record disclosed by Zhongkuang Resources on August 25th, in February 2026, the Zimbabwean government temporarily suspended the approval of lithium concentrate export licenses to combat smuggling and promote local deep processing. It pays attention to local policy developments and actively communicates and responds, obtaining the first batch of 200000 tons of lithium concentrate export quota in April 2026 and another 300000 tons quota in July. As of the disclosure date, the transportation of Bikita lithium concentrate has returned to normal, and the supply can meet the company's domestic smelting capacity demand.

The above lawyer introduced that after the rules of resource rich countries such as Argentina and Zimbabwe entered the substantive implementation period, the delivery conditions of the transaction have been rewritten.

In Argentina, RIGI approval is no longer a retroactive process after delivery, and many new mining rights have made obtaining RIGI principle approval a prerequisite for delivery.

In Zimbabwe, export quotas are linked to local smelting construction commitments. This set of constraints has a relatively clear timeline: in June 2025, the Zimbabwean Cabinet decided to ban the export of lithium concentrate from January 1, 2027, and set aside an 18 month preparation period for the industry.At the end of February 2026, Zimbabwe suspended all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate. In April of the same year, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development wrote to the Mining Chamber of Commerce, clarifying the conditions for resuming exports and requiring relevant enterprises to make a written commitment to build lithium sulfate processing plants in Zimbabwe and ensure that they are completed and put into operation before January 1, 2027. Export quotas will be allocated to each enterprise based on their construction progress, and a 10% export tax will be required for lithium concentrate exports before the ban takes effect. In July 2026, the Zimbabwean Minister of Mines publicly stated that the ban would not be postponed.

The gap between signing and landing is becoming an unavoidable reality in this round of going global.

Reshaping Rules

In the view of Chen Shi, the supply chain manager of a large lithium mining enterprise in North China, this round of lithium industry going global is significantly different from the previous round. The previous round focused on 2021-2022, with high lithium prices, investment attraction from resource rich countries, and relaxed policies. The industry is competing for speed, and whoever signs contracts and locks in mines first will seize the advantage of raw materials. The biggest difference in the wave of restart in 2026 is the fading of policy dividends. Lithium resource countries have shifted from attracting investment to retaining resources and increasing local value, with local compliance becoming the core threshold.

The lithium company leaders who are currently promoting overseas lithium projects have also expressed similar judgments and added a change in mentality. After experiencing a significant decline in lithium prices and some overseas projects being put on hold for impairment, the company has become more cautious and no longer takes risks for resource reserves. Ensuring supply is the core demand, but feasibility has been placed in an equal position. In this round of going global, companies will no longer blindly acquire mining equity, and many will directly land in smelting and processing plants to adapt to the local processing policies of resource countries. This is also a strategic adjustment forced by territorial policies. He said that before making decisions, companies should extend their internal due diligence cycle and not rush to disclose the signing information to the public.

This shift has also been responded to by companies in their announcements.

On August 24th, Shengxin Lithium Energy explained its factory construction in Zimbabwe and Nigeria, stating that it needs to comply with the policy trend of overseas resource countries promoting on-site processing and value-added of minerals. Signing is just the starting point, approval, financing, and local compliance are becoming the thresholds for truly realizing production capacity.

Chen Shi believes that the capital market tends to directly convert overseas signed agreements of enterprises into future lithium supply increments, and assume that the implementation of agreements means the realization of production capacity. However, frontline practitioners are aware that signing agreements is only the first step of projects, and the true realization of production capacity needs to go through layers of losses, such as cycle losses. Overseas lithium and salt lake projects generally have a cycle elasticity of 2 to 3 years from signing to production; Scale loss, influenced by local policies, power and water resources, and quota control, many projects may ultimately have lower production capacity than initially planned; Operating losses, cyclical fluctuations in lithium prices, and rising costs of local labor and compliance will prompt some companies to proactively reduce their production scale.

The person in charge of the lithium company that is promoting overseas lithium projects mentioned above reminded that "the concentrated signing in August can only represent the company's willingness to layout resources, and is not equivalent to the actual production capacity supply in the future. This round of going global has just begun, and the progress of subsequent projects still needs to be continuously observed

(Author Wang Yajie)