Economic Observer Follow
2026-10-06 11:24

Two months ago, Mr. Tian bought the gold bracelet that he had been thinking about for two years. After his wedding in 2024, Mr. Tian planned to purchase this piece of jewelry, but unexpectedly, the price of gold continued to rise and his purchase plan was delayed time and time again. Afterwards, he closely monitored the trend of gold and waited for a pullback window until July 2026 when he finally got his hands on it.
Mr. Tian's experience of buying gold reflects the mentality of current gold investors. In the first three quarters of 2026, the domestic gold market bid farewell to the unilateral upward trend and entered a period of high-level oscillation and sawing. At the beginning of this year, international spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $5500 per ounce; The domestic gold price rose synchronously, once exceeding 1200 yuan/gram. Subsequently, the gold price quickly retreated and market divergence widened. In June, the domestic gold price fell below 1000 yuan/gram. In July, the gold price once again experienced a phase of correction, with domestic gold prices falling below 900 yuan/gram. In mid August, there was another phase of rise, and the market continued to fluctuate in September, with a fast switching speed between rise and fall. As of the end of September, the domestic gold price closed at about 910 yuan/gram; As of October 2nd, the international spot gold price closed at $4142 per ounce. Under this, the wait-and-see sentiment spreads in the market, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary investors to make decisions.
The fluctuation and unclear trend of gold prices have put ordinary people in a dilemma when buying gold. Some investors view gold as an emotional consumer good, buying it for marriage and personal purposes, struggling between high price wait-and-see and low price entry; Another group of investors have included gold in their asset allocation system, attempting to hedge market risks, but also facing the dilemma of timing errors and short selling losses. Faced with consumer demands or investment needs, the word 'indecision' has become a reflection of ordinary people buying gold amidst the fluctuations in gold prices this year.
Watch the market for two years, buy a gold bracelet
In 2024, Mr. Tian and his wife entered into marriage. When buying wedding hardware, he found that the premium of branded gold jewelry was too high, and it was not cost-effective to buy finished products directly. Mr. Tian usually reads financial news and frequently browses videos analyzing gold price trends on social media, which gives him a basic understanding of the gold market situation. After comparing prices in many ways, he obtained 100g the Year of the Loong stamp gold at 490 yuan/g as wedding hardware. While giving consideration to the sense of wedding ceremony, he also hoped to use the special attribute of stamp gold to preserve commemoration.
In Mr. Tian and his wife's social circle, gold bracelets are defined as the standard accessory for married women. My wife, who worked after marriage, looked at her colleagues and friends wearing gold bracelets and longed to have one in her heart. Mr. Tian noticed these and originally planned to buy them when the year-end bonus was distributed in 2025.
But the global risk aversion sentiment has risen, coupled with the continuous increase in gold holdings by central banks in many countries, driving the gold price out of a sustained upward trend. In April 2025, the domestic gold price soared to around 800 yuan/gram. In this market situation, Mr. Tian postponed his plan to purchase gold bracelets and continued to wait for a suitable entry window. At the end of 2025, Mr. Tian only bought a small heavy gold necklace.
At the beginning of 2026, gold prices continued to rise, with domestic gold prices exceeding 1200 yuan/gram at one point. The high prices once again disrupted this purchasing plan. On one hand is the wishes of the family, and on the other hand is the volatile market situation. I used the money I saved myself to buy gold. We are just an ordinary family, and we usually focus on clothing, food, housing, and transportation. We have a fixed annual income and save money together. Large scale consumption often requires planning in advance. Last year, I didn't really have that much private money, "Mr. Tian said.
This year, his wife became pregnant and the family received good news. Mr. Tian still remembered the gold bracelet. In April, he noticed a pullback in gold prices, and with his continued focus on gold prices over the past two years, he expects that gold prices will continue to decline in the future. In May, the domestic gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level of 1000 yuan/gram; In July, on the eve of his wife's birthday, the domestic gold price experienced a temporary correction, falling back to 900 yuan/gram. He decisively made a move.
The volatile trend makes it difficult for financial practitioners to avoid timing issues
Ms. Ma is also facing a dilemma in the high volatility of gold prices in 2026. She works in finance and has only invested in funds and bank wealth management in the past.
In mid October 2025, after a round of rising gold prices, Ms. Ma opened a deposit account at the bank and purchased gold deposit at a price of approximately 945 yuan/gram. Ms. Ma recalled that when she purchased bank deposits, there was also a discount on transaction fees, resulting in lower transaction costs. However, this discount has now been cancelled.
Ms. Ma's gold allocation style tends to be cautious, gradually increasing her holdings on dips, with a peak position of about 100 grams and a total price of less than 100000 yuan. In her allocation strategy, the international situation is an important reference factor, and gold is suitable as a supplementary category for asset portfolios with long-term allocation value. As long as position management is done well, in the face of short-term gold price corrections, one can choose to hold and wait for the market to recover.
Before the domestic gold price surged above a thousand yuan and the downward trend arrived, Ms. Ma chose to redeem and clear all of her holdings. This accumulated investment ultimately yielded a profit of over 5000 yuan. Currently, she is still observing the trend of gold prices, waiting for a suitable price, and then considering reorganizing her gold reserves.
In this round of operations, Ms. Ma admitted that when the market continues to rise, it is inevitable that she will regret not being able to obtain more profits. Selling too early, worried about continuing to rise and falling short; Continuing to hold, yet fearing a sharp decline in gold prices.
This is also a common psychological dilemma for investors in volatile market conditions.
Mr. Wu, who is also a financial practitioner, adopts a parallel allocation approach of physical gold and gold ETFs (exchange traded open-end index funds). He, who is engaged in research work on a daily basis, has a high sensitivity to macro market signals.
In 2023, with a deposit due at home and the dual needs of marriage hardware and family asset planning, Mr. Wu plans to purchase physical gold first. At that time, the domestic gold price was around 400 yuan/gram. After researching from multiple sources, Mr. Wu found that the offline metalworking fee was 50 yuan/gram, which could save a premium of two to three hundred yuan per gram compared to branded gold jewelry. He decisively bought 30 grams of gold bars and chose offline gold processing. In his opinion, this is a wise choice to balance the use of marriage and asset preservation.
With the convenience of organizing market weekly reports based on his job position, Mr. Wu is able to continuously track the market changes of major asset classes, and thus noticed the previous round of strong market performance of gold ETFs. In 2024, he invested tens of thousands of yuan to try to layout gold ETFs and related concept stocks. However, the volatility of the gold market intensified, and the market entered a wide range of fluctuations. Due to risk control considerations, he ultimately chose to sell, and this round of investment ultimately did not result in losses or profits.
In May 2025, Mr. Wu spent another 21000 yuan to purchase a 31 gram gold pendant. The price of gold continues to rise, and by January 2026, the market value corresponding to this gold jewelry has risen to 45000 yuan.
Since the beginning of this year, Mr. Wu has observed that the long short game in the gold market has intensified, and high-level fluctuations have become the norm in the market. Short term fluctuations are highly random and there is no clear trend pattern. That is why Mr. Wu has always adhered to the principle of prudence in practical operations, downplayed short-term games, focused on medium - and long-term allocation, and sought suitable opportunities to start. In July 2026, Mr. Wu chose to increase his position and bought 30 grams of gold bars at a price of 923 yuan/gram.
For Mr. Wu, physical gold is a guaranteed asset and still the preferred long-term allocation. He has been studying the trend of gold for a long time, closely monitoring the key indicator of global central bank gold purchases, in order to judge the market's medium - and long-term risk aversion and gold price support.
Clarify needs and invest cautiously
Despite having extensive investment experience, Mr. Shen still faces the dilemma of trade-offs brought about by fluctuations in gold prices. In preparation for the engagement ceremony during the National Day holiday, in early September, he made a special trip to a gold shop to select gold, with a purchase price of 954 yuan/gram. On September 29th, Mr. Shen checked the gold market again and found that the domestic gold price had fallen to 894 yuan/gram. The market has changed so quickly and exceeded expectations, and the price difference generated in just a few days means that if you delay buying for a period of time, you can buy an additional 6 grams of gold with the same budget.
Mr. Shen has many years of experience in stock and bank wealth management investment, and has developed his own asset allocation strategy. In mid October 2024, he identified the window layout with relatively low gold prices and invested a total of 200000 yuan in purchasing gold.
He made three types of gold asset allocations to diversify risks. Among them, gold funds account for 40%, physical gold bars account for 30%, and bank deposits account for 30%. In his consideration, each of the three types of gold assets has its own characteristics and functions that are distinct from each other. Gold funds have good liquidity and lower trading thresholds, making them suitable for seizing market fluctuations; Physical gold bars focus on long-term preservation and can serve as a ballast for household assets; Bank deposits can be invested in small amounts in batches to smooth out purchase costs. Three types of tools are combined to balance liquidity, safety, and yield elasticity. At present, he is still allocating gold according to the above proportion.
There are many gold buyers like Mr. Shen. Marriage, gift giving, and other essential scenarios often cannot keep up with the fluctuations in gold prices, and investors who enter with their own investment ideas find it difficult to completely ignore the ups and downs of the market. Brand gold jewelry comes with processing and brand premium, and there is a significant price difference when it is recycled; Accumulated gold and gold ETFs closely follow the international gold price trend, and even a slight mistake in the volatile market can lead to floating losses.
For Mr. Shen, buying gold itself involves two levels of demands: one is the consumption demand for purchasing physical gold during festivals, and the other is the investment demand for operating in the account. The two demands are intertwined, and every rapid rise and fall in gold prices brings new trade-offs.
Multiple securities research reports have pointed out that factors such as geopolitical risks and continuous purchases of gold by global central banks provide medium - to long-term support for gold prices. However, in 2026, the divergence between long and short positions in the gold market will intensify, and short-term fluctuations will continue to be the norm. Several commercial banks in China have also issued risk warnings multiple times, reminding investors to view gold price fluctuations rationally, control their positions reasonably, and strictly distinguish between the consumption and investment attributes of gold.
The gold price tug of war continues, and for ordinary people, to get rid of the dilemma of buying gold, the core is to clarify their own core demands - for emotional and wearable consumption needs, they need to start based on budget and timing; For the investment needs of asset allocation and risk hedging, it is necessary to strictly control the rational operation of positions.

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