Economic Observation Network Bubble Mart's performance in 2025 reached a historic high, but after the release of its financial report, its stock price fell sharply and remained under pressure for nearly a hundred days, mainly due to multiple factors such as lowered growth expectations, IP dependence, slowing overseas growth, capital outflows, and market confidence games.

Performance and business situation
According to the 2025 annual performance released on March 25, 2026, Bubble Mart's revenue reached 37.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and adjusted net profit was 13.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 284.5% However, the management set the revenue growth guidance for 2026 at "not less than 20%" at the performance meeting, which showed a cliff like decline compared to the ultra-high growth rate in 2025 This adjustment has been interpreted by the market as the peak of the company's growth potential, leading to the disruption of the logic of "growth stocks" that previously supported high valuations. Bank of Communications International pointed out that the market had previously given Bubble Mart a P/E ratio of over 40 times based on a growth rate of over 50%. When the growth rate drops to the 20% range, the valuation must switch to mature IP enterprise standards, and the downward shift of the valuation center is inevitable ?

Company Fundamentals
In 2025, LABUBU's THE MONSTERS series will have a revenue of 14.16 billion yuan, accounting for a significant increase in the proportion of total revenue from 23.3% in 2024 to 38.1% Although the company has 17 IPs with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan, the concentration of top IPs has increased instead of decreased. The revenue scale of second tier IPs (such as SKULLPANDA and MOLLY) ranges from 2 billion to 3.5 billion yuan, with a clear gap from LABUBU This reliance on a single popular IP has intensified market concerns about performance sustainability, and institutions such as Zhongtai Securities have highlighted the risks of IP lifecycle uncertainty ?

Business Progress
In the second half of 2025, the revenue growth rate of Bubble Mart in the American market will slow down from over 1265% in the third quarter to 633%, and the growth rate in Europe and other markets will also fall from over 735% to 436% According to media reports, the North American market experienced stockouts during Halloween and Christmas due to cross-border logistics and production delays, directly affecting peak season sales performance Although the proportion of overseas revenue has increased to about 44%, the slowdown in growth and operational fluctuations have weakened investors' confidence in the story of global expansion.

Fund Flow
After the release of the financial report, foreign institutions became the main selling force. Citibank has sold a total of 9.29 million shares in the past 5 trading days, while Guotai Junan International has sold a net of 1.55 million shares At the same time, short selling transactions erupted in a concentrated manner, with 25.29 million shares sold short and a total transaction volume of 4.63 billion yuan on March 25th Despite continuous net purchases by southbound funds around April 10th (totaling HKD 751 million), it is still difficult to offset the selling pressure brought by foreign capital outflows ?

Company Status
To stabilize the stock price, Bubble Mart conducted six share repurchases from March 26 to April 2, with a cumulative amount of approximately HKD 1.5 billion Founder Wang Ning defines 2026 as a 'full year off' and emphasizes the need for periodic adjustments to optimize operations for businesses However, the market's confidence in short-term repair measures is limited, and some institutions such as China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) are still downgraded to "underweight" due to "structural adjustment uncertainty" ?

Company Valuation
As of April 14, 2026, the stock price of Bubble Mart was reported at HKD 160.6, a decrease of approximately 53% from its historical high of HKD 339.8 in August 2025 Its expected price to earnings ratio for 2026 is about 11-13 times, which is lower than the valuation level of international IP companies such as Disney Technical indicators show that the stock price is near the lower Bollinger Band (HKD 114.98), and although the MACD bar chart has turned positive, the momentum is weak, reflecting that the market is still observing.

The above content is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.