Economic Observation Network After being prosecuted, the stock price of Sichuang Zhilian (300078. SZ) is under pressure, and its subsequent trend depends on the fundamental repair and realization after clearing old accounts.

Recent stock trends:
On the day after the announcement of the public prosecution on September 2nd (9/3), it opened low and fell 11.36%, but there was no consecutive sharp decline afterwards - indicating that criminal accountability is an expected bearish trend (filing in 2022 and administrative penalties in 2024 have been fully priced). However, since September 4th, it has fallen by about 7% again, and the current price of 2.73 yuan is close to the previous low point. The 20 day line (3.03 yuan) continues to suppress, and MACD weakens below the zero axis, indicating that the short-term weak pattern has not changed.

Company fundamentals:
The surface shrinkage of revenue of 190 million yuan (-65.16%) in the first half of 2026 is due to the clearance of the smart healthcare sector and real estate disposal revenue (contributing 293 million yuan in the same period last year) After excluding, EAS business was RMB 90.07 million (-3.98%) and RFID business was RMB 96.17 million (-16.97%) - the main business is still shrinking, but the gross profit margin has increased from 15.33% to 25.14% Reducing losses by 55% relies more on "cutting costs+divesting low gross profit businesses". Accumulated unrecovered losses of 2.428 billion yuan are long-term burdens 。

Corporate governance:
In April, Wei Naixu took over and became the actual controller, ending his ownerless state This is currently the most important marginal change. Whether his actions (such as the production of the Cangnan base and the extension of the industrial chain) can bring RFID/EAS back to the growth track will have a greater impact on valuation than litigation rulings. In addition, the operating cash flow in the first half of the year was 75.22 million yuan, and the payment of fines was also consuming cash, which needs to be closely monitored 。

The core contradiction corresponding to the current price is whether the market is willing to reprice the company's "small but pure" status after divesting its medical business. The condition for triggering repair is the recovery and growth of main business revenue (such as the narrowing of RFID decline and turning positive); The signal of failure is that cash flow continues to deteriorate or the integration of new controlling personnel resources falls short of expectations. On a technical level, 2.71 yuan (near the lower Bollinger Bands) is a short-term support observation level, while 3.03-3.14 yuan above it is a tight concentration area.

The above content is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.