Ouyang Xiaohong/Text

The number of people in the church has increased, but the casino is even more crowded than the church

On May 2, 2026, 95 year old Warren Buffett reiterated this metaphor at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting, intending to remind investors to be wary of excessive speculation. A few days later, on the first trading day after the May Day holiday, A-shares experienced a "chip" market trend: on May 6th, the Sci Tech Innovation 50 Index closed up 5.47%, with a turnover of about 3.23 trillion yuan in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, led by semiconductors, computing hardware, and storage chips.

Standing in the optical module, recorded in the storage 'chip' "- this joke adapted by netizens has become a footnote to the A-share market on May 6th. Langke Technology, Jiangbolong, Demingli and others hit the limit up, while Dapuwei, Puran Shares, Lanqi Technology, Baiwei Storage and others saw significant increases, and the concept of storage chips sparked a surge of limit up.

The next day, Cambrian closed at 1868 yuan/share, up 2.36%; Kweichow Moutai closed at 1371.05 yuan/share, down 0.29%. One is that AI (artificial intelligence) chip high priced shares continue to approach 2000 yuan, and the other is that Baijiu leaders accept market repricing.

In the same market, there is a very strong signal hidden in the 2026 A-share first quarter report: total profits are recovering, but the anchor of asset pricing is changing; The market is asking an essential question - who is truly making money beyond the price increase? What is the capital power behind the price difference of the "stock king" telling?

'Core' light suddenly appears: Cambrian moves from story valuation to performance verification

In August of last year, when Cambrian shares crossed Kweichow Moutai for the first time in the session, the market saw more symbolic meanings.

At that time, controversy also followed: was this a capital rehearsal for the conversion of old and new driving forces, or was it another amplification of the high valuation narrative of technology stocks? The Economic Observer published the "Capital 'Verification' Moment for the Conversion of New and Old Driving Forces" in August 2025, which is regarded as a symbol of the conversion of new and old driving forces.

By May 2026, the story is no longer a 'narrow victory'. The Cambrian share price hit 1966 yuan in the middle of the day, while the share price of Kweichow Moutai still hovered around 1300 yuan. Capital seems to be telling investors in an intuitive way that the marginal pricing power of A-shares is undergoing a structural shift.

However, this curve is not smooth.

The Cambrian period did not rise all the way. In March 2026, its stock price briefly retreated to the range of over 900 yuan. The market believes in the future of AI chips while repeatedly questioning its valuation, orders, supply chain, and performance sustainability. This is the real side of technology assets: capital can push them to high levels in a short period of time, but it can also quickly withdraw when expectations shake.

The key change is that the Cambrian has already gone through the initial stage of storytelling. In the first quarter of 2026, Cambrian's revenue increased by 159.56% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 185.04% year-on-year, and operating cash flow turned positive to RMB 834 million. It is no longer priced solely by imagination, but is beginning to be validated by financial reports.

But today's Cambrian is far more than just being priced by current profits. Based on the closing price on April 30th, its dynamic P/E ratio is about 264 times, P/B ratio is about 56 times, and P/S ratio is about 87 times. Behind this, what the market is truly buying is the market share, profit elasticity, and potential for platformization of China's AI computing power localization in the coming years. The market does not ignore valuation, but switches the valuation anchor from current P/E ratio to forward revenue, forward profit, and potential cash flow.

In contrast, Kweichow Moutai is still one of the strongest cash flow assets of A-share. In the first quarter of 2026, Kweichow Moutai's total operating revenue increased by 6.34% year on year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 1.47% year on year. The net profit in a single quarter is still as high as 27.243 billion yuan, and the cash flow is abundant and stable. But it has entered a mature stage, with valuation more anchored on stable cash flow, dividend ability, and steady growth.

Therefore, the price difference between Cambrian and Kweichow Moutai stock prices is a crack between the two sets of valuation languages: one is the future of computing power that is being discounted in advance, the other is the stable cash flow that has been cashed in; On one hand, it is about 'determining how much money to earn each year', and on the other hand, it is about 'how much new market it may occupy in the future'.

Capital is conducting an asset reallocation in the most direct way possible: no longer only rewarding proven cash flows in the past, but also paying premiums for potential technological dominance in the future. But all 'dream pricing' must ultimately return to financial performance.

The 'structural answer' behind 1.59 trillion yuan

On April 30th, the A-share market officially closed its first quarter report for 2026.

According to Wind data, the total operating revenue of 5503 listed companies was 17.68 trillion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59%. The overall revenue growth rate of A is 4.66%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2025; Excluding finance and petrochemicals, the profit growth rate surged to 10.94%, a 51.78 percentage point increase from the previous quarter.

But 1.59 trillion yuan is not a evenly spread map, but more like a strongly layered heatmap.

Among 5503 listed companies, 2845 achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 52%; 2658 companies experienced a year-on-year negative growth, accounting for approximately 48%; The net profit growth rate of 824 companies exceeded 100%.

By industry, the structure is clearer. In the first quarter of 2026, the industries with the highest year-on-year growth rate in total operating revenue were semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and hardware equipment, with growth rates of 30.89%, 30.73%, and 23.55%, respectively; The industries with the highest year-on-year growth rate in net profit attributable to shareholders are software services, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, with growth rates of 259.57%, 148%, and 85.79%, respectively.

In other words, the profit recovery of A-shares is not evenly contributed by all industries, but highly concentrated in a few business directions - software services, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, electrical equipment, machinery and other sectors have become the main sources of incremental growth.

Cash flow speaks up

The semiconductor market on May 6th was not solely driven by emotions, as the first quarter report provided performance support.

Data shows that 55 A-share storage concept stock companies achieved a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.774 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 214.48%. Eleven companies, including Demingli, Jiangbolong, and Baiwei Storage, turned losses year-on-year, while 28 companies, including Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran Co., Ltd., saw a year-on-year increase in net profit.

The total operating revenue of the semiconductor sector in the first quarter report increased by 30.89% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 148% year-on-year. More than 80% of the companies within the sector have achieved positive revenue growth, and the prosperity is spreading from the leading companies to the entire industry chain.

And the most iconic one is still the Cambrian period. This AI chip company, which has suffered losses five times in six years since going public and was once ridiculed by value investors, delivered its strongest performance in history in the first quarter of 2026: revenue of 2.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.04%. More critical than profit is cash flow - net operating cash flow of 834 million yuan, compared to -1.399 billion yuan in the same period last year.

On the first trading day after the performance announcement, Cambrian's stock price jumped 20% and closed at 1699 yuan, once again regaining the "stock king" of A-shares; On May 6th, it rose by over 7% to 1825 yuan.

As of May 6, 2026, the top five listed companies in A-share price are Cambrian, Yuanjie Technology, Kweichow Moutai, Zhongji Xuchuang and Muxi Shares. Except Kweichow Moutai, the other four are AI related enterprises. This is the most important "stock king change" in China's capital market in the past 20 years: the era of consumer pricing power is shifting towards the era of computing power pricing power.

Although "Xinzhiguang" and "Maotai fragrance" have never been binary options, and although Cambrian is entering the performance verification stage from the narrative stage, whether Cambrian can continue to stand firm at its current valuation still requires more quarterly cash flow and orders to answer. The market has given it extremely high growth expectations, and the higher the expectations, the smaller the margin for error.

The market is rewarding companies that can cash in revenue, profits, and cash flow, while also re examining assets that only have stories and lack performance support. The underlying logic of value investing has not changed: what ultimately determines a company's long-term value is not the popularity of the concept, but the ability to continue making money.