Economic Observer Follow
2026-01-12 19:35

The A-share market has ushered in a "shining moment".
Since the beginning of 2026, A-shares have continued to perform a "good start" market, with the index climbing steadily. According to Wind data, as of the close of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% and achieved 17 consecutive gains, rising from 3822.51 points to 4165.29 points, setting a new high in over 10 years; The Shenzhen Component Index has risen to 14000 points, setting a new four-year record. In addition, the ChiNext Index rose 1.82%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 5.35%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 2.43%. More than 4100 stocks rose in the entire market.
In terms of trading volume, on January 12th, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 478.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, breaking the historical record of trading volume set on October 8, 2024.
17 consecutive sunny days, witnessing history every day, "an investor exclaimed on their social media account.
Rising to the point of doubting one's life. "" At first glance, it's all up to the limit up, except for what I bought. "" Big A is already 17 consecutive suns. Where am I? ?"Has everyone made a profit in this market?" "I hide the bull market in Baijiu"... On microblog, A-share has also become a hot topic for investors.
Who is leading?
According to statistics from Dongwu Securities on the history of A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index has only been positive for 10 consecutive days or more since its opening in 1990, with only 7 occurrences (including this one). Among them, there have been 2 consecutive positive days for 10 consecutive days (January 10, 1991, September 9, 1991), 3 consecutive positive days for 11 consecutive days (January 12, 2018, June 29, 2006, May 19, 1992), and 1 consecutive positive day for 12 consecutive days (March 11, 1992).
Dongwu Securities stated that according to the statistics of the rise and fall performance of the Shanghai Composite Index after 10 consecutive positive days, the probability of short-term (5-day) rise is extremely high. However, with the extension of the time period, the Shanghai Composite Index's rise and fall are intertwined, so further consideration is needed to identify the core factors that catalyze the rise.
From the perspective of sectors, on January 12th, the application direction of AI (artificial intelligence) exploded across the board, with Gravity Media (603598. SH) exiting the 5-day board for 6 days, and several stocks including Yidian Tianxia (301171. SZ) showing a 20cm limit up. On the news front, at the beginning of 2026, the launch of Zhipu and Minimax, the Spring Festival Gala on Doubao, Musk's announcement of open-source X recommendation algorithm, and the subsequent catalysis of DeepSeekV4 have made AI applications a hot topic in the market.
CITIC Securities stated that with the continuous improvement of model capabilities, especially the significant reduction in inference and long window costs, downstream AI application scenarios are accelerating into the commercial verification stage, with a focus on search/marketing Coding? Multimodal, Agent, AI for Science field.
The index has continued to rise, with no significant holdings. Previously, it had already heavily invested in AI applications. ?A private equity fund manager told an Economic Observer reporter that his judgment is that stock market trends are usually ahead of fundamentals, and "in a bull market, faith should not be shaken
According to Wind data, on January 12th, the artificial intelligence index rose by 7.26%, and in just six trading days since 2026, the index has risen by over 16%.
By 2025, the penetration of AI applications in the consumer layer will rapidly advance. According to QuestMobile's statistics from last month, in the native AI market, Doubao's 155 million weekly active users ranked first, while DeepSeek's 80 million+and Yuanbao's 20 million+products ranked second and third; The Alibaba "Thousand Questions" released at the end of the year quickly caught up with the second tier, with weekly activities approaching tens of millions.
According to Dongwu Securities' analysis, AI application direction has become one of the strongest directions at the beginning of the year, and 2026 is expected to be a key year for AI application volume increase. Market funds have also recently voted with real money, and multiple sub directions of AI applications have exploded.
In addition to the AI application sector, there is also a place for commercial aerospace concepts in the frenzy of technology stocks. On January 12th, the concept of commercial aerospace continued to strengthen, with Star Map Measurement and Control (920116. BJ) hitting the limit up of 30cm and multiple stocks such as Tianyin Electromechanical (300342. SZ) hitting the limit up of 20cm. On the news front, on January 10th, China applied to ITU for frequency orbit resources for over 200000 satellites in December 2025; As a comparison, SpaceX, the global leader in commercial aerospace, has submitted an application to ITU for about 30000 satellites for the second-generation Starlink (Gen2), with 10000 already launched, totaling 42000 satellites, which is only one-fifth of China's application volume.
On the same day, the concept of photovoltaics became active again in the market, with perovskite cells and space photovoltaics leading the way, and Dongfang Risheng (300118. SZ) rising by over 10%. On the news front, recently listed photovoltaic companies such as Junda Corporation, JinkoSolar Energy, and Trina Solar have significantly increased their attention to space photovoltaics, and have all emphasized the application prospects of perovskite technology in space.
What should we look at next?
Will the market continue to rise or fall? There has been a heated argument on social media; Institutions are also monitoring the future market amidst the hustle and bustle.
In the view of Huaxi Securities, with the market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, the A-share volatility center has once again broken upward, and the spring long window is expected to continue: firstly, the December PMI and inflation data are better than expected, providing fundamental support for the spring market; Secondly, the willingness of foreign capital to enter the market has significantly rebounded. Since the beginning of the year, the inflow of financing funds, foreign capital and other incremental funds has accelerated, and the subsequent influx of multiple off exchange incremental funds such as insurance funds and resident funds into the market is worth looking forward to; Thirdly, before and after the Spring Festival, the expectation of technology industry events catalyzing is conducive to maintaining market risk appetite.
Dongwu Securities divides the factors that affect the market into short, medium, and long term judgments - in the short term, we look at changes in sentiment, whether there is a policy shift towards risk, or the impact of risk events; Mid term assessment of whether the dividends of institutional reform will continue; Long term fundamental pricing. The long-term pricing of the market still anchors fundamentals, and from the scissors gap between M1 (narrow money) and M2 (broad money), it is about 6 months before the PPI (producer price index) recovers; Combined with the promotion of anti involution policies, the growth rate of PPI is expected to continue to converge, driving up corporate profit margins and ultimately promoting the recovery of A-share profits. Therefore, in the future, the bull market is not over.
Galaxy Securities believes that since the second half of December 2025, the A-share market has experienced a "restless" trend. Firstly, the overseas uncertainty disturbance has decreased, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike decision have been implemented successively; Secondly, the appreciation of the exchange rate strengthens the attractiveness of RMB assets and creates conditions for the recovery of market risk appetite; The third is intensive catalysis at the industrial and policy levels, driving the theme to rotate and rise. The commercial aerospace and other fields are facing systematic policy deployment, attracting funds for precise layout. Driven by multiple positive factors, the momentum of capital inflow has increased, and A500ETF has received a rapid influx of funds. The "good start" of insurance funds has supported the entry of new premiums into the market, and the balance of financing has continued to grow, exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan.
Looking ahead, the volatile spring market continues. On the one hand, we need to observe the strength of fundamental support. In January, we entered the annual report performance forecast disclosure window, focusing on the performance forecast and economic data of listed companies. On the other hand, policy expectations in the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan are expected to strengthen market confidence. With the market hitting a new high in recent years, short-term market volatility may increase, and the focus is on exploring structural investment opportunities. ?Galaxy Securities stated.

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