During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's GDP has successively surpassed three major levels of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan. The average annual real growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is 5.5%, far higher than the world's average annual growth rate of 3.9% during the same period. China's GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to reach 5.2%, and the annual growth rate is likely to be 5% or above.

As the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan, whether 2026 can create a good start will profoundly affect the macroeconomic growth trend in the next five years. One focus worth paying attention to is the geometry of the GDP growth target.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that next year's economic work should adhere to the policy orientation of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, leveraging the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, increasing countercyclical and cross cyclical adjustment efforts, and enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance.

At the same time, the Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out that there are still many old problems and new challenges in China's economic development, the impact of external environmental changes is deepening, the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent, and there are many risks and hidden dangers in key areas. These are mostly problems in development and transformation, which can be solved through efforts. The supporting conditions and basic trends for the long-term improvement of China's economy have not changed.

Due to the interweaving of development issues and positive trends, the market has different opinions on the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2026. Previously, several macroeconomic experts estimated that China's economic growth target for 2026 may be set between 4.5% and 5%. In terms of actual growth rate, in the near future, Western Securities, Zhongtai International, and CITIC Securities expect that China's GDP growth rate will still be maintained at around 5% in 2026; The forecast value of Goldman Sachs China research team is 4.8%, and Nomura's global macroeconomic outlook predicts that China's GDP growth rate next year will be 4.3%, with growth rates of 4.1% and 4.5% in the first and second half of the year, respectively.

In recent years, employment, especially for young people, has faced certain pressures, and stable employment has been placed at the forefront of ensuring people's livelihoods. From an economic perspective, labor demand is a derivative demand, and the macroeconomic situation determines the growth of employers' employment demand. Therefore, maintaining a certain level of economic growth in 2026 is crucial for promoting employment.

In addition, China's long-term goal by 2035 is to achieve per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries, that is, to double the total economic output or per capita income compared to 2020. According to calculations, in order to achieve this goal, the average annual GDP growth rate from 2026 to 2035 needs to be maintained at 4.4% or above. All of these objectively require maintaining a certain economic growth rate.

In the past few years, the "temperature difference" between macroeconomic and microeconomic perceptions has been a noteworthy phenomenon in economic operations. This year's Central Economic Work Conference further sent a signal that growth is still important, but beyond growth, specific issues and the feelings of market entities are also important and require policy efforts to address and improve. The meeting proposed to fully implement the overall requirements and policy orientation of next year's economic work, adhere to a positive and pragmatic goal orientation, focus on solving existing difficulties and problems, make greater breakthroughs in quality and effective improvement, and enhance the sense of gain for residents and enterprises.

Zhang Lin, Vice President of Far East Credit Research Institute, said that compared to achieving a certain economic growth goal, the greater difficulty of economic growth still lies in bridging the gap between micro perception and macro statistics. A 4% growth that can be fully perceived by micro entities and various departments may be more difficult than a 5% growth driven by external forces, but it will also have more long-term significance, as it can lay a better foundation for the upward movement of the growth center.