On January 4th, Tianyancha revealed that Vanke A (00000 2. SZ) has added a new equity freeze notice, stating that its 250 million yuan stake in Wanwei Logistics Development Co., Ltd. has been frozen by the Xuzhou Intermediate People's Court in Jiangsu Province for a period of three years. Wanwei Logistics was established in December 2017 with a registered capital of approximately 33.05 billion yuan, consisting of Vanke Dahlia Investments Pte. Co owned by Reco Meranti Private Limited and others, specializing in warehousing, transportation agency, and supply chain management services. This freeze is Vanke's 13th recent equity freeze record. According to incomplete statistics from Jiemian News, the cumulative amount of frozen equity has exceeded 2 billion yuan.

In late December 2025, Vanke substantially defaulted on two medium-term notes totaling 5.7 billion yuan, "22Vanke MTN004" (2 billion yuan) and "22Vanke MTN005" (3.7 billion yuan), due to the failure of the holders' meeting to approve the extension plan. Although a grace period of 30 working days was agreed upon in subsequent meetings, consensus was not reached on the core debt restructuring terms. International rating agencies S&P and Fitch have respectively downgraded their main ratings to "SD" (selective default) and "RD" (restricted default), indicating that their domestic and foreign financing capabilities are almost exhausted.

As of the end of September 2025, Vanke's total interest bearing debt reached a historical high of 362.9 billion yuan. Among them, interest bearing debt due within one year accounts for 42.7%, while the book value of monetary funds is 65.68 billion yuan, and the cash short debt ratio is only 0.48. If restricted funds are excluded, the actual available liquidity becomes even more tight. This structural mismatch results in a lack of buffer space for the company when facing concentrated maturing debt. Public data shows that in 2026 alone, Vanke's domestic bonds facing maturity or exercise will reach 12.419 billion yuan, far exceeding the current available cash reserves.

Vanke continues to face pressure in its operations. In the third quarter of 2025, Vanke achieved a revenue of 56.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.30%; The net loss for a single quarter was 16.069 billion yuan, with a cumulative loss of 28.016 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and the extent of the loss increased year-on-year. The company explained that the main reasons for the loss include a decline in the settlement scale of development business, a low gross profit margin (only 2.0% after tax gross profit margin), provision for impairment of new inventory, and disposal prices of some assets lower than book value. The settlement area of real estate development business has significantly shrunk year-on-year, further weakening the ability to generate cash flow.

To alleviate the liquidity crisis, the largest shareholder Shenzhen Metro Group Co., Ltd. (holding 27.18% equity in Vanke) has provided financial support multiple times since 2025. On November 2nd, the two parties signed a framework agreement on shareholder loans and asset guarantees, which stipulated that Shenzhen Railway Group would provide Vanke with a loan limit of no more than 22 billion yuan before the 2025 shareholders' meeting, and the initial term of each loan should not exceed 3 years. With the consent of Shenzhen Railway Group, the loan term can be extended. As of November 20th, Vanke has actually withdrawn a total amount of 21.376 billion yuan in unsecured/pledged guaranteed loans from Shenzhen Railway Group.

On November 20th, the above-mentioned related party transaction proposal was approved by Vanke's extraordinary shareholders' meeting, and Shenzhen Railway avoided voting. The purpose of the loan is to repay the principal and interest of the bonds issued by the company in the public market, as well as the designated loan interest approved by Shenzhen Railway Group.

However, external blood transfusions are still difficult to reverse the trend of credit deterioration. On December 23, 2025, S&P downgraded Vanke's long-term credit rating from "CCC -" to "SD", citing the company's failure to repay its maturing debts on time and in full. The next day, Fitch downgraded its issuer default rating from "C" to "RD". Both institutions pointed out that Vanke has entered a de facto selective default state. As the trustee of domestic bonds, CITIC Securities confirmed in its interim report released on December 30th that both "22Vanke MTN004" and "22Vanke MTN005" have entered a grace period of 30 working days. Although other existing bonds have not yet defaulted, there is a high degree of uncertainty in overall repayment.

It is worth noting that although the holders of the two winning votes passed the proposal to extend the grace period, the core extension or principal reduction plan did not receive sufficient support. For example, although the second shareholders' meeting of "22Vanke MTN004" held on December 18th exempted the deadline for the convening procedure, the substantive restructuring terms could not be agreed upon. Vanke promises not to pay the principal to any bonds due after December 15, 2025, before repaying the principal and interest of the notes, and guarantees that the repayment order will not be inferior to subsequent bonds. This commitment attempts to stabilize creditor expectations, but its binding force is limited in the absence of new cash flow support.

At the same time, Vanke is also promoting the disposal of non core assets to recover funds. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company will complete the signing and delivery of its ice and snow business with China Travel Service Group; Wanwei Logistics collaborates with Shenzhen Railway to promote the "Rail Transit+Robot Delivery" project; There are over 7600 newly expanded properties in Boyu, with a rental rate of 94.3%. The total revenue from operating service business was 43.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. But the cash flow contribution of these sectors is not enough to cover the huge debt principal and interest expenses.During the same period, the company's consolidated financial statements included 26.5 billion yuan in new financing and refinancing, with a domestic financing cost of 3.44%. Although there was a slight decrease, the financing channels have significantly narrowed.

In addition, Vanke's external guarantee balance reached 84.493 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025, accounting for 41.69% of the net assets at the end of 2024. Its holding subsidiary, Fuzhou Wanbin Real Estate Co., Ltd., continues to have negative net profits and is involved in litigation cases. Such off balance sheet risks may further erode the credit of the parent company.

Vanke's predicament reflects a typical contradiction in the deep adjustment period of China's real estate industry: the high leverage expansion model is difficult to sustain under the dual impact of a sharp drop in sales receipts and a tightening of financing channels. Even with the support of state-owned shareholders, high-quality operational assets, and brand value, once cash flow breaks, the credit chain will still quickly collapse. Currently, Vanke is at a critical window of debt restructuring. Whether it can achieve a "soft landing" through asset sales, debt swaps, or the introduction of strategic investors is not only related to the survival of the company, but also has sample significance for the risk resolution path of the entire real estate industry. How to balance market clearing and systemic risk prevention at the institutional level will become the core proposition for policy-making in the next stage.