Beijing, July 14 (Xinhua) -- According to the Chinese government website on the 13th, the State Council has issued a reply on the "15th Five Year Plan for Expanding Consumption", agreeing in principle to the "15th Five Year Plan for Expanding Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan").

Anchoring the goal of achieving a total retail sales of consumer goods of around 60 trillion yuan by 2030, the "Plan" has deployed 28 key task measures around six aspects, placing service consumption such as elderly care, childcare, cultural tourism, and health in a prominent position, and clearly stating that "cultivating and creating new forms, models, and scenarios of consumption" will be the main line running through various fields, outlining a blueprint for high-quality consumption development that combines "expansion" and "improvement".

From the overall goal, the "Plan" proposes that by 2030, the overall scale of the consumer market will continue to expand, the consumption rate of residents will significantly increase, the consumption of goods and services in the whole society will grow rapidly, the total retail sales of consumer goods will reach about 60 trillion yuan, and the driving force of consumption on economic growth will be further enhanced.

The Plan also proposes to focus on optimizing the consumption structure, continuously improving consumption capacity, optimizing consumption supply, significantly improving the consumption environment, and promoting further improvement of the consumption system and mechanism.

What is the confidence in setting goals? By 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will reach 50.1 trillion yuan, surpassing the 50 trillion yuan mark. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 58.8%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the 13th Five Year Plan period.

Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce responded to reporters' questions regarding the "Plan" and stated that in the face of the "15th Five Year Plan", the development of China's consumer market will enter a critical period of expanding quantity and improving quality. The consumer foundation will be stable and solid, the trend of consumption upgrading will be obvious, and the innovative vitality of consumer scenarios will be sufficient, providing solid support for the growth of the consumer market.

Experts point out that the setting of the above-mentioned multidimensional goals marks a profound transformation in the logic of promoting consumption during the 15th Five Year Plan period. Chen Lifen, Director of the Market Circulation Research Office at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that during the 15th Five Year Plan period, consumption will serve as the "main engine" and "ballast" for economic growth. Future consumption growth is not simply about stimulating people to spend money, but is synchronized with the growth of residents' income and the improvement of social security.

Chen Lifen summarized the shift in policy logic into three "turns": from "stimulus" to "consolidation" - consumption capacity is no longer a supporting measure, but a prerequisite, reflecting the concept of "investing in people"; From "filling gaps" to "improving quality" - the policy focus has shifted from addressing "whether there is" to pursuing "whether it is good or not"; Shift from "short-term drive" to "institutional drive" - by clearing unreasonable restrictions and improving long-term mechanisms, transform consumption promotion from short-term policy dividends to institutional dividends.

Around the above goals, the "Plan" has deployed 28 key task measures, highlighting the close combination of benefiting the people's livelihood and promoting consumption, and highlighting innovation leadership as highlights.

From a specific perspective, the "Plan" focuses on the upgrading needs of residents' consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, cultural tourism, and health. It proposes measures from multiple aspects, including expanding high-quality supply, enriching platform carriers, and strengthening support and guarantee, including supporting and encouraging social forces to participate in expanding the supply of inclusive elderly care services; Accelerate the construction of a universal childcare service system and support the construction of comprehensive childcare service centers; Encourage the development of digital art, China-Chic cultural and creative products and other cultural products; Vigorously developing new service formats such as health checkups, health consultations, and health management, etc.

Chen Lifen believes that the above deployment accurately targets the intersection of population structure changes and consumption upgrading, pointing to new growth points in service consumption, and is expected to steadily increase the proportion of residents' service consumption expenditure, while creating new demand by expanding high-quality supply.

From the perspective of business models, "cultivating and creating new forms, models, and scenarios of consumption" has become a policy focus, running through various fields of expanding consumption in the future. The "Plan" clearly states the deepening of "artificial intelligence+consumption", the promotion of the first launch economy according to local conditions, and the cultivation of experiential consumption.

Fu Yifu, a special researcher at Su Shang Bank, analyzed that digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and virtual reality have not only given birth to new products and services such as smart wearables and instant retail, but also fundamentally reshaped consumer scenarios and interaction methods, breaking the time and space boundaries of traditional consumption and stimulating a large amount of demand space that did not exist before.

Chen Lifen further pointed out that the core value of these "new" elements lies in breaking through the bottleneck of consumption growth through technological empowerment and scenario innovation. She believes that the new business model is restructuring the service processes and business models of multiple industries, giving rise to production side changes such as "flexible manufacturing", promoting the integration of consumer data and production data, forming a virtuous cycle of supply and demand mutual promotion, and injecting lasting momentum into domestic demand growth.

Looking ahead to the 15th Five Year Plan, the driving logic of consumption growth is clear and visible. Fu Yifu stated that the implementation of planning tasks will release new growth points such as service consumption and digital consumption, while income distribution reform and social security improvement will further stabilize residents' expectations and boost consumption confidence. Under the combination of multiple favorable factors, the fundamental support of consumption for economic growth will continue to strengthen, the development pattern dominated by domestic demand will be more consolidated, and the benign track of "expanding quantity" and "improving quality" in the consumer market can be expected.

Editor: Yin Yang

(Author Xinhua Finance)