Is the 27 month tax-free window for solid-state batteries an expansion opportunity or a countdown to cost reduction?

The recently announced regulations on battery consumption tax stipulate that from September 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, solid-state batteries will be fully exempt from consumption tax, while mature lithium-ion batteries will be subject to a phased 2% and 4% consumption tax. The 27 month tax-free window period is not only an opportunity for expanding production, but also a countdown to commercial landing, and the only low-cost buffer period for solid-state battery companies. Tax exemption directly widens the cost gap of batteries. A 60kWh solid-state vehicle model can save about a thousand yuan in tax burden, which is expected to directly drive the mass loading of semi-solid vehicles with a capacity of over 300000 yuan, attracting capital to shift from the surplus liquid lithium battery track to the semi-solid industry chain. The tax-free window focuses on matching the production capacity ramp up period of semi-solid state batteries from 2026 to 2028. After the discount expires, solid-state batteries are likely to be subject to tiered taxation similar to lithium batteries. The current cost of semi-solid state batteries is 15% -30% higher than that of high-end liquid lithium batteries. Enterprises must quickly reduce costs and achieve parity with liquid lithium batteries by 2028. The tax exemption policy also sets hard entry thresholds for national standards and CMA testing, and pure concept R&D enterprises cannot share the dividends. And the window period cannot support all solid state throughput. Ningde Times' Zeng Yuqun frankly stated that the possibility of achieving million level vehicle installation of all solid state batteries before 2030 is very small. Academician Ouyang Minggao predicts that all solid state batteries will begin to be installed in 2027, and it will take another five to ten years to form a scale. On one hand, there are low-cost expansion opportunities brought by the tax-free dividend, and on the other hand, there is still a years long gap in mass production technology. The window period is forcing the industry to accelerate cost reduction and research, and the track pattern will also undergo another round of reshuffle under the catalysis of tax policies.