The probability of implementing incremental policies in August and September is relatively high

In the first half of 2026, the Chinese economy grew by 4.7% year-on-year, showing the characteristics of "weak recovery and strong differentiation". Exports benefit from the AI industry and emerging market industrialization, but domestic demand is weak. The policy layer focuses on K-type differentiation, emphasizing the combination of countercyclical regulation and incremental policy research. Experts suggest accelerating the landing of fiscal funds, optimizing expenditure structure, promoting fiscal and tax reforms, and boosting domestic demand through prioritizing employment, improving social security, supporting low-income groups, stimulating private investment, promoting the qualitative transformation of real estate products, and promoting the coordination and complementarity of new and old driving forces.